Subject: Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics

Posted by Eric Stiens on 12/19/2009
In Reply To:Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics Posted by Michael Round on 12/18/2009

Message:

so let's see, a bunch of systems thinking platitudes that sound great in popscience writing or management training seminars, plus a misunderstanding of SD modeling in general and Limits to Growth in particular, plus a bunch of caveats about how hard nonlinear systems are to predict and understand, all in service of his assertion that the "conventional wisdom" about global climate change is a myth and that those who talk about the catastrophic affects of GCC are fearmongerers.......

Sorry, but in the wake of the complete failure of negotiations in Copenhagen to make any meaningful progress to addressing CO2 emissions, this sort of fuzzy generalized statements about the map not being the territory doesn't cut it with me, and shouldn't with anyone on a list dedicated to SD -- because while the model IS always wrong, that doesn't mean there aren't useful insights to be gained from it, and in the case of the World3 model, climate change models, etc the most valuable insights are still being undercut by this sort of assertion of lots of doubt and controversy where there actually is very little doubt.

Add to that the conclusion that couples acting on climate change as being in opposition to acting on other pressing social justice/human rights issues (extreme poverty, malnutrition, access to clean water) as if they are part of a zero-sum game and you have the precise type of article that is cloaking itself in talk about "complexity" and "systems" but should be being deconstructed and plled apart and critiqued by people on this list, not actively forwarded around as a good article.

That being said the Yellowstone example is all well and good and I believe there are some models of it floating about -- maybe in Modeling the Environment?

Woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning apparently,
Eric

Follow Ups:

Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Karl North 12/19/2009 
Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Lascelles Anderson 12/20/2009
Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Tim Joy 12/20/2009
Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Richard Turnock 12/20/2009
Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Michael Round 12/20/2009
Michael Crichton on Complexity Theory and Systems Dynamics - Lees N. Stuntz 12/19/2009