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| James M. Lyneis |
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| Two Loops, Three Loops, or Four Loops: Pedagogic Issues in Explaining Epidemic Dynamics |
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Author(s):
James M. Lyneis, & Debra Lyneis |
Subject:
System Dynamics |
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How many feedback loops, and of
what type, control the behavior of an epidemic?
A search of the literature discovered two-, three-,
and four-loop versions of the basic epidemic
model in introductory system dynamics materials.
How can the same behavior be explained with
such different feedback structures? Can they
all be right? This paper analyzes the three
basic model structures and discusses
implications for system dynamics pedagogy.
We conclude that either the two- or four-loop
versions of the basic epidemic model are
acceptable representations, with the two-loop
version recommended for beginners; the
three-loop version of the system is never correct.
In addition, we suggest that the development of
incorrect representations such as the three-loop
epidemic model can be avoided if standard
system dynamics modeling practice is followed –
formulating a dynamic hypothesis to explain the
observed behavior. |
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