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Psychological processes
Posted by Greg Wierzbicki on 12/6/2009
In Reply To:Psychological processes Posted by Richard Turnock on 12/6/2009
On 06 Dec 09, at 15:24, Richard Turnock wrote:
You seem to have a different goal, to understand the psychological processes bearing on making policies at the federal level.
Perhaps, but not sure I'd represent what I'm saying quite that way. I'd rather prefer to suggest that, like it or not, as currently practiced, policy choices are rarely, if ever, simply matters of rational choice. There is always a game of some sort going on -- whether between various groups/factions of policy makers, or between policy makers and their constituent groups, and/or between competing constituent groups -- a game from which policy makers could not extract themselves if they wanted, and upon which their decisions are, to some significant degree, dependent.
Now, if I understand correctly (huge IF), rather than deal directly with these intersubjective games, SD modelers typically present to policy makers an array of options that represent a variety of scenarios of how the objective world might unfold, and then let the policy makers do with this as they wish. OK. But as history has made clear, this leaves it too easy for policy makers to simply dismiss whatever good insight might be afforded by SD, and leaves it wide open for their continuing distraction and/or reliance on contemporary superstition or other ideological rationalizations. In the past, when the planet was not at such high risk, maybe this was acceptable. But today, in light of the potentially irreversible catastrophic consequences of getting climate policy wrong, the status quo has very limited (zero?) appeal.
So, what's a conscientious citizen to do in these near-desperate times? Spend time & energy writing Op-Eds that rarely get published or read? Raise funds for special interest groups to hire PR firms to develop slick ad campaigns to combat the slick ad campaigns developed by the PR firms of competing special interest groups? Carry signs in marches on Washington that attract limited media coverage and less public interest? Pay a visit to gerrymandered Congressmen & women? Hope that the mindless babble that spews from the mouths of most contemporary politicians on both left and right will spontaneously correct itself? Or, or, or...? All the while the precious few remaining grains of sand fall to the wrong side of the hourglass.
Been there. Done that. Not working. Not likely to.
So, I think its time to inquire into the objective and inter-subjective dynamics of the policy formulation processes currently in place, determine the points that afford the greatest leverage to actually improve the way we formulate policy, and design a strategy to introduce such changes for climate policy, education policy, economic policy, foreign policy etc. I have little doubt that if Madison and his associates were alive today, and had available to the them the tools of SD (and, perhaps others), they would be utilizing such tools to combat the gross dysfunction that has come to characterize our current system of public policy making -- ranging from how those who represent us are chosen, to how they are held to account, to how best to counter the evils of faction, to whatever.
Now, I am not so naive to believe that this would have much impact on the current crop of scoundrels who have gerrymandered themselves into near perpetual incumbency on Capitol Hill. But, it might well prove to benefit that group of citizens currently matriculating K-12 as they come of age and feel the greatest impact from our generation's failed climate policies, among others.
BTW, recall my recent inquiry began with a question about whether such studies might already exist. If so, please point me in their direction. Thanks.
Greg Wierzbicki
Fairfax Station, VA
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