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Climate Change
Posted by Jay Forrester on 12/4/2009
In this discussion of climate change and the reputation of science, there are two big elephants in the room that very few are addressing. These are population growth and the increase in industrial output per capita. Climate change is only a symptom of the two big driving forces. People in system dynamics should know that addressing symptoms is a losing game. However, the symptoms are more visible; it is easier to rally people behind fighting symptoms; and, in this situation, calling attention to the real underlying causes is politically incorrect.
With the two powerful forces that are causing the excessive demands on the environment unaddressed and unrestrained, there is almost no chance of suppressing the symptoms. Furthermore, the focus on symptoms like climate change, hunger, water shortages, wars over land, and many others, misleads people into believing that the future is being addressed.
One of the characteristics of a complex system is that it draws people into arguing over policies that have little leverage for causing change. I quote some lines from my paper, D-4895-1, "Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century."
"4.2. Low-Leverage Policies: Ineffective Actions
"Complex systems differ from simple systems in another way. In simple
systems, the policies to yield better results are obvious and they work. To avoid
burning your fingers on a hot stove, you keep away from the stove. But in
complex systems, the apparently influential policies often have very little effect.
"When I talk to a group of business executives I ask how many have ever had
the experience of facing a serious problem, devising policies to correct the
situation, and five years later find there has been no improvement. Most will hold
up their hands. Perhaps you have experienced the same in education. The quality
of education has been severely criticized, many educators have tried remedies, and
often there is little change. .......
" I believe that a very high percentage, say 98%, of the policies in a system
have very little leverage to create change. They do not matter. However, most of
the heated debates in communities, companies, and governments are about policies
that are not influential. Such debates are a waste of time and energy. Debates
about low-leverage policies divert attention from the few policies that could lead to
improvement."
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